Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in April
Leader sits at 95% across 19 bound outcomes, runner-up at 95%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 3.7%
Outcomes
19
winner-take-all
Runner-up
95¢
Above 3.8%
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$29K
liquid
Closes
Dec 4, 2026
116 days
Venue
Kalshi
19 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in August?: Above 4.2%
KXU3-26AUG-T4.2
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in August?: Above 4.0%
KXU3-26AUG-T4.0
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in September?: Above 4.2%
KXU3-26SEP-T4.2
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in August?: Above 4.3%
KXU3-26AUG-T4.3
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in August?: Above 4.1%
KXU3-26AUG-T4.1
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in September?: Above 4.3%
KXU3-26SEP-T4.3
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.4% in September?: Above 4.4%
KXU3-26SEP-T4.4
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 5.0% in August?: Above 5.0%
KXU3-26AUG-T5.0
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.6% in August?: Above 4.6%
KXU3-26AUG-T4.6
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.7% in August?: Above 4.7%
KXU3-26AUG-T4.7
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in September?: Above 4.1%
KXU3-26SEP-T4.1
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.7% in September?: Above 3.7%
KXU3-26SEP-T3.7
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.7% in August?: Above 3.7%
KXU3-26AUG-T3.7
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.7% in November?: Above 3.7%
KXU3-26NOV-T3.7
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.9% in August?: Above 4.9%
KXU3-26AUG-T4.9
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.8% in August?: Above 4.8%
KXU3-26AUG-T4.8
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.5% in August?: Above 4.5%
KXU3-26AUG-T4.5
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in August?: Above 3.9%
KXU3-26AUG-T3.9
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.8% in August?: Above 3.8%
KXU3-26AUG-T3.8
Analysis
This contract estimates a 97% probability that the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) will exceed 4.0% when April 2026 data is released. The current assessment reflects labor market softening observed in recent months, with traders pricing in persistent weakness above this threshold. The probability is driven primarily by recent employment trends and Fed policy trajectory; it could shift downward if job growth accelerates unexpectedly or upward if layoffs intensify. The resolution hinges on the Bureau of Labor Statistics' official April 2026 unemployment report, typically released in early May 2026, which reports the exact U-3 rate for that month. Market pricing suggests traders view a sub-4.0% rate as unlikely given current economic conditions, though the 29¢ contract on unemployment above 4.3% indicates some hedging against more severe labor market deterioration.
- ›April 2026 official U-3 unemployment rate from BLS will determine settlement; currently must exceed 4.0% to resolve YES
- ›Recent U.S. labor market data through early 2026 shows job growth moderation and initial jobless claims trends
- ›Federal Reserve policy stance and interest rate expectations influence employer hiring decisions and layoff rates
- ›Related contract pricing suggests 29% probability of unemployment exceeding 4.3%, indicating market uncertainty about severity level
- ›Seasonal adjustments and methodological consistency in BLS reporting methodology will apply to final data release
What moved the line
- Aug 9Above 3.7%↓37pp91→54¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Above 4.3%↓21pp35→14¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Above 4.2%↓19pp58→39¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Above 4.1%↓19pp77→58¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 10Above 4.1%↑11pp49→60¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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