Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in April
Leader sits at 84% across 14 bound outcomes, runner-up at 73%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 3.7%
Outcomes
14
winner-take-all
Runner-up
73¢
Above 3.9%
Spread
11pp
contested
24h volume
$106
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 4, 2026
71 days
Venue
Kalshi
14 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.8% in November?: Above 3.8%
KXU3-26NOV-T3.8
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 5.0% in November?: Above 5.0%
KXU3-26NOV-T5.0
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.9% in November?: Above 4.9%
KXU3-26NOV-T4.9
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.8% in November?: Above 4.8%
KXU3-26NOV-T4.8
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.7% in November?: Above 4.7%
KXU3-26NOV-T4.7
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.6% in November?: Above 4.6%
KXU3-26NOV-T4.6
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.5% in November?: Above 4.5%
KXU3-26NOV-T4.5
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.4% in November?: Above 4.4%
KXU3-26NOV-T4.4
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in November?: Above 4.2%
KXU3-26NOV-T4.2
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in November?: Above 4.0%
KXU3-26NOV-T4.0
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in November?: Above 3.9%
KXU3-26NOV-T3.9
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.7% in November?: Above 3.7%
KXU3-26NOV-T3.7
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in November?: Above 4.3%
KXU3-26NOV-T4.3
Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in November?: Above 4.1%
KXU3-26NOV-T4.1
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that U.S. unemployment will exceed 4.0% by April 2027, with the current 90% price indicating traders see this as highly likely. The assessment is shaped by recent labor market trends, Federal Reserve policy decisions, and macroeconomic headwinds. Markets are pricing in persistent economic softness or slower job creation over the coming months. The April unemployment reading, due in early May 2027, will definitively resolve this. Near-term catalysts include September 2026 employment data and ongoing Fed communications about rate policy. The high probability suggests current market conditions—trading patterns visible in related contracts forecasting elevated unemployment in September, October, and November—point toward sustained labor market weakness rather than rapid tightening.
- ›Unemployment has historically fallen below 4.0% during economic expansions and tends to rise during slowdowns; the 90% probability assumes labor market deterioration over eight months
- ›Related contracts show 89% probability of unemployment above 3.9% in September 2026 and 77% for above 3.9% in November, indicating expected gradual increase
- ›Federal Reserve rate policy and inflation trajectory directly influence business hiring decisions and unemployment outcomes in the eight-month window
- ›Current 24-hour trading volume concentration ($182 in the November 3.8% contract) suggests active market pricing of near-term labor data
- ›The April 2027 unemployment release (May 2027) represents the definitive resolution date; preliminary September and October data will provide intermediate signals
What moved the line
- Sep 18Above 3.7%↓42pp68→26¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 23Above 3.7%↑42pp45→87¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 23Above 3.8%↓34pp78→44¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Above 4.3%↓19pp36→17¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Above 3.7%↑19pp26→45¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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