What is the current probability for "Shabab Al-Ahli vs Khor Fakkan Winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 5¢ (5% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 7, 2026. 15 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Shabab Al-Ahli vs Khor Fakkan Winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 45276.5% and 125.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Shabab Al-Ahli vs Khor Fakkan Winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Shabab Al-Ahli vs Khor Fakkan Winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Shabab Al-Ahli vs Khor Fakkan Winner?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2026. This market shows severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 42,419% implied yield on the Yes side.

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5¢

Bid/Ask 5/57¢·Spread 52¢·Vol $0·OI $170·Closes May 7, 2026·15d remaining

KXUAEPLGAME-26APR23SAHKHF-KHF

7-day price60 snapshots · 2 regime

14¢5¢ current

Apr 151¢Apr 22

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 42,419% implied yield on the Yes side. The 91¢ spread is extraordinarily wide, indicating virtually no market participants are actively pricing this UAE Pro League matchup with 21 days to expiry. The neutral regime score and stagnant 7-day price action suggest this contract may be inactive or abandoned, making any yield calculations misleading given the lack of tradeable depth.

Resolution rules

If Khor Fakkan wins the Shabab Al-Ahli vs Khor Fakkan professional UAE Pro League soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 23, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 45276.5%

IY (No) 125.4%

Adj IY 45276%

CRI 19

RV 2102%

VR 0.88

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	45276.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	125.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	45276%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	2102%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.88	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.0/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

52¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 9:22:00 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 9:08:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXUAEPLGAME-26APR23SAHKHF-KHF yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →