What is the current probability for "Shabab Al-Ahli vs Khor Fakkan Winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 35¢ (35% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 7, 2026. 15 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Shabab Al-Ahli vs Khor Fakkan Winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 21446.8% and 264.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Shabab Al-Ahli vs Khor Fakkan Winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Shabab Al-Ahli vs Khor Fakkan Winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 35% probability that Shabab Al-Ahli vs Khor Fakkan Winner?. This contract trades at 35¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2026. This market shows severe illiquidity dysfunction with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 91¢ spread, suggesting the 0¢ Yes price is likely a stale quote rather than a genuine market signal.

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35¢

Bid/Ask 10/83¢·Spread 73¢·Vol $0·OI $527·Closes May 7, 2026·15d remaining

KXUAEPLGAME-26APR23SAHKHF-SAH

7-day price175 snapshots · 5 regime

82¢10¢ current

Apr 152¢Apr 22

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows severe illiquidity dysfunction with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 91¢ spread, suggesting the 0¢ Yes price is likely a stale quote rather than a genuine market signal. The astronomical 42,485% implied yield on Yes contracts reflects the pricing breakdown rather than legitimate odds, as professional soccer matches between UAE Pro League teams typically don't feature such extreme probability skews. With 21 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 24, this market appears abandoned and should be avoided until liquidity materializes or prices reset.

Resolution rules

If Shabab Al-Ahli wins the Shabab Al-Ahli vs Khor Fakkan professional UAE Pro League soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 23, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 21446.8%

IY (No) 264.8%

Adj IY 21447%

CRI 9

RV 5745%

VR 5.00

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	21446.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	264.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	21447%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	9	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	5745%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	5.00	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

73¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 9:21:38 AM

Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 9:08:23 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXUAEPLGAME-26APR23SAHKHF-SAH yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →