Will Arthur Hayes be on UpOnly Podcast before Jan 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 19% probability that Will Arthur Hayes be on UpOnly Podcast before Jan 2027?. This contract trades at 19¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1031% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 19¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of Hayes appearing on UpOnly before year-end 2027.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 1031% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 19¢ price significantly undervalues the probability of Hayes appearing on UpOnly before year-end 2027. The $0 24-hour volume and minimal $330 open interest indicate severe illiquidity, making the wide 5¢ spread a warning sign that any execution could move the price substantially. With 260 days to resolution and a moderate 7-cliff risk index, the neutral regime and recent price uptick from 11¢ to 12¢ suggest this mispriced contract may attract informed traders, though the lack of recent activity leaves uncertainty about true market consensus.
Also on polymarket at 12¢(Δ +7¢)
Resolution rules
If Arthur Hayes is on the UpOnly Podcast before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUPONLY-01-ARTH yes 100