What is the current probability for "Will Arthur Hayes appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 13¢ (13% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2027. 244 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Arthur Hayes appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1208.2% and 18.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Arthur Hayes appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Arthur Hayes appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will Arthur Hayes appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2027.

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13¢

Bid/Ask 6/19¢·Spread 13¢·Vol $0·OI $584.466·Closes Jan 1, 2027·244d remaining

0x1f58934915eddcde4d5a5fa609d74e4129caf2a33777e35eeb859742322d443c

7-day price1872 snapshots · 7 regime

51¢12¢ current

Apr 89¢May 1

Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at 11¢(Δ +2¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.89IY 1205.1%Close-time delta 15h

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a new episode of the UpOnly podcast featuring the specified guest is publicly released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” “Released” means the full episode is published and available to the general public on an official UpOnly platform (e.g. YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or the show’s official feed). Previews, clips, teasers, or promotional material do not count toward resolution. The resolution source will be the official UpOnly podcast channels and/or a consensus of credible public reporting.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1208.2%

IY (No) 18.5%

Adj IY 1208%

CRI 8

RV 3947%

VR 25.12

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1208.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	18.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1208%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	8	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	3947%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	25.12	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	5.9/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	6.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

13¢

Computed

5/1/2026, 1:45:05 PM

Indicators computed 5/1/2026, 1:38:57 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x1f58934915eddcde4d5a5fa609d74e4129caf2a33777e35eeb859742322d443c yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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