Will US used cars and trucks CPI for April 2026 be above 177.0?
Prediction markets currently give a 87% probability that Will US used cars and trucks CPI for April 2026 be above 177.0?. This contract trades at 87¢ on Kalshi, closing May 12, 2026. The market is pricing in a 91% probability that used car CPI will exceed 177.0 in April 2026, with the Yes contract trading at 91¢ and showing a dramatic 22-cent rally over seven days.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 91% probability that used car CPI will exceed 177.0 in April 2026, with the Yes contract trading at 91¢ and showing a dramatic 22-cent rally over seven days. The extremely asymmetric implied yields (195.6% for Yes versus 10,521% for No) combined with zero 24-hour volume and just $1,039 open interest suggest thin liquidity and potentially unreliable pricing, particularly given the high cliff risk index of 7 indicating sharp payoff discontinuity. With only 25 days until expiration and resolution tied to official CPI data, the market appears to be pricing in a very high baseline expectation, though the lack of trading activity warrants caution about whether this consensus reflects genuine conviction or simply reflects an illiquid market anchored to an early price.
Resolution rules
If the United States Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Used Cars and Trucks in U.S. City Average for April 2026 is above 177.0, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSEDCARCPI-26MAY12-T177.0 yes 100