Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 6.74ㅤ?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 33¢ (33% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 12, 2026. 20 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 6.74ㅤ?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 4416.6% and 736.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 6.74ㅤ?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4416.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	736.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2208%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	2.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Will United States - Average Price: Ground Beef, 100% Beef (Cost per Pound/453.6 Grams) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 6.74ㅤ?

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