Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-1?
Prediction markets currently give a 85% probability that Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-1?. This contract trades at 85¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2026. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a massive 684% implied yield on the No side versus 48% on Yes, despite the 84¢ price suggesting McAdams is heavily favored—a classic sign of illiquidity and low conviction with only $7,241 open interest and zero 24-hour volume.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a massive 684% implied yield on the No side versus 48% on Yes, despite the 84¢ price suggesting McAdams is heavily favored—a classic sign of illiquidity and low conviction with only $7,241 open interest and zero 24-hour volume. The 348% realized volatility and dramatic 55¢ to 79¢ seven-day rally indicate sharp recent repricing, though the neutral regime score and low 0.6/h information arrival rate suggest this movement may reflect thin-market dynamics rather than substantive news. With 201 days to expiry and a 4 cliff risk index, this appears to be a speculative position in a low-liquidity contract where the No side's extreme yield reflects desperation for counterparty rather than genuine probability assessment.
Resolution rules
If Ben McAdams wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 UT-01 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUT1D-26-BMCA yes 100