Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-1
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 4% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
4%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$244
4 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
132 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Liban Mohamed be the Democratic nominee for UT-1
Will Liban Mohamed be the Democratic nominee for UT-1?: Liban Mohamed
KXUT1D-26-LMOH
Cluster 2
Will Brian King be the Democratic nominee for UT-1
Will Brian King be the Democratic nominee for UT-1?: Brian King
KXUT1D-26-BKIN
Cluster 3
Will Caroline Gleich be the Democratic nominee for UT-1
Will Caroline Gleich be the Democratic nominee for UT-1?: Caroline Gleich
KXUT1D-26-CGLE
Cluster 4
Will Luz Escamilla be the Democratic nominee for UT-1
Will Luz Escamilla be the Democratic nominee for UT-1?: Luz Escamilla
KXUT1D-26-LESC
Analysis
This probability indicates that Nate Blouin has roughly a one-in-three chance of winning the Democratic primary for Utah's 1st Congressional District. The 32% level reflects significant uncertainty about the outcome, suggesting Blouin faces meaningful competition in the race. Primary election results and candidate fundraising activity typically drive these probabilities up or down, as demonstrated performance and financial resources signal viability to primary voters. The Democratic primary election in Utah will ultimately resolve this market, though early voting patterns, endorsements, and polling data in the months leading up to the primary date would likely shift the probability meaningfully.
- ›Nate Blouin's fundraising totals and cash-on-hand compared to other Democratic primary candidates
- ›Endorsements from local party officials, unions, and established Democratic figures in UT-1
- ›Early voting or primary results from comparable Utah Democratic primaries showing typical turnout and candidate performance patterns
- ›Poll data or internal campaign metrics specifically measuring Blouin's support among likely Democratic primary voters
- ›Demographics and voting history of the UT-1 Democratic primary electorate relative to Blouin's base of support
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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