Will XRP trimmed mean be below $1.10 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will XRP trimmed mean be below $1.10 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 3% probability on a yes position offering a theoretical 100,000% yield, suggesting traders are heavily underweighting the likelihood of XRP's trimmed mean dipping below $1.10 over the next 11 days.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 3% probability on a yes position offering a theoretical 100,000% yield, suggesting traders are heavily underweighting the likelihood of XRP's trimmed mean dipping below $1.10 over the next 11 days. The sharp 7-day price collapse from 11¢ to 3¢ combined with 6,271% realized volatility and a cliff risk index of 32 indicates significant uncertainty and potential for rapid repricing, though the $13.74 daily volume and $2,938 open interest suggest thin liquidity that could amplify moves. With XRP's current price well above $1.10 and only 11 days to expiration, the market appears to be pricing in near-zero tail risk for a substantial drop, which may be underestimating both XRP's volatility profile and the definition's use of "trimmed mean" rather than spot price.
Resolution rules
If the price of XRP after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026 is ever below $1.10, then the market resolves to Yes.
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXXRPMINMON-XRP-26APR30-110 yes 100