When will IShowSpeed reach 100 million Youtube subscribers?
Prediction markets currently give a 70% probability that When will IShowSpeed reach 100 million Youtube subscribers?. This contract trades at 70¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2030. The market is pricing in a 71% probability that IShowSpeed reaches 100M YouTube subscribers by end of 2029, but the extreme illiquidity ($0 24h volume, only $336 open interest) and wide 11¢ spread suggest this price may not reflect true consensus.
Analysis
The market is pricing in a 71% probability that IShowSpeed reaches 100M YouTube subscribers by end of 2029, but the extreme illiquidity ($0 24h volume, only $336 open interest) and wide 11¢ spread suggest this price may not reflect true consensus. The asymmetric yield profile—with the No side offering 62.8% implied yield versus 11.5% for Yes—indicates significant disagreement about whether the creator can add roughly 50M subscribers over the next 3.6 years, though IShowSpeed's current growth trajectory would need to accelerate substantially to hit this target.
Resolution rules
If @IShowSpeed has at least 100,000,000 subscribers before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXYTUBESUBSISHOWSPEED-30 yes 100