Will AD Pasto win on 2026-04-23?

Prediction markets currently give a 45% probability that Will AD Pasto win on 2026-04-23?. This contract trades at 45¢ on Polymarket, closing April 23, 2026. This market exhibits severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 56¢ bid-ask spread despite only 6 days to expiration, suggesting minimal trader interest in AD Pasto's April 23 match.

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45¢
Bid/Ask 44/46¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $0·OI $4,008.905·Closes Apr 23, 2026·1d remaining
0xb63ca7153e1e43e9b851533adc2ed5588fe76b68578d2bf41cc1f2190d8dcd2a
7-day price143 snapshots · 4 regime
47¢45¢ current
Apr 1739¢Apr 22

Analysis

5d ago

This market exhibits severe illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 56¢ bid-ask spread despite only 6 days to expiration, suggesting minimal trader interest in AD Pasto's April 23 match. The extraordinarily high implied yields (8171.5% for Yes, 4650.4% for No) are artifacts of the wide spread and thin liquidity rather than genuine opportunities, with the risk-adjusted yield of 4086% reflecting extreme uncertainty. The neutral regime score and minimal 7-day price movement (43¢ to 44¢) indicate the market lacks conviction, making this an illiquid venue for this particular fixture with resolution imminent.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 23, 2026 If AD Pasto wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 70811.3%
IY (No) 47402.6%
Adj IY 10150%
CRI 1
RV 117%
VR 0.04
▶ Full indicator table (9)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)70811.3%
IY (No)47402.6%
Adj IY10150%
CRI1
RV117%
VR0.04
IAR0.3/h
Overround-0.0%
LAS0.04

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 9:04:08 AM
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 8:53:24 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xb63ca7153e1e43e9b851533adc2ed5588fe76b68578d2bf41cc1f2190d8dcd2a yes 100

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