Al Fateh Saudi Club vs. Al Khaleej Saudi Club: O/U 4.5

Prediction markets currently give a 20% probability that Al Fateh Saudi Club vs. Al Khaleej Saudi Club: O/U 4.5. This contract trades at 20¢ on Polymarket, closing April 24, 2026. This over/under market shows extreme mispricing with the Under at just 22¢ despite a 6¢ spread and only $840 open interest, generating an implausible 24,338% implied yield on the Yes side.

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20¢
Bid/Ask 18/22¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $2,499.412·Closes Apr 24, 2026·1d remaining
0x5f403c3e89a2bec7ac9914cf225ed41187d7d22c9f6516505f9d62d623f0d5d2
7-day price11 snapshots · 4 regime
24¢21¢ current
Apr 1920¢Apr 22

Analysis

4d ago

This over/under market shows extreme mispricing with the Under at just 22¢ despite a 6¢ spread and only $840 open interest, generating an implausible 24,338% implied yield on the Yes side. With zero 24-hour volume and just 5 days to expiry, the market lacks liquidity and appears to be a stale or abandoned position, making the quoted prices unreliable for actual trading. The 4/10 Cliff Risk Index combined with neutral regime suggests potential for sharp repricing closer to the April 24 match time once more traders engage with this Saudi Professional League fixture.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming Saudi Professional League game between Al Fateh Saudi Club and Al Khaleej Saudi Club, scheduled for April 24 at 11:45 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Al Fateh Saudi Club and Al Khaleej Saudi Club combine to score 5 or more goals in this game. If the combined total is less than 5, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. If the game is started but not completed, this market will resolve according to the official final score published on slstat.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Indicators

IY (Yes) >100,000%
IY (No) 7731.1%
Adj IY 50000%
CRI 4
Overround 2.2%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)>100,000%
IY (No)7731.1%
Adj IY50000%
CRI4
Overround2.2%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
4¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 5:57:14 PM
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 5:53:23 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x5f403c3e89a2bec7ac9914cf225ed41187d7d22c9f6516505f9d62d623f0d5d2 yes 100

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