Spread: Al Khaleej Saudi Club (-1.5)

Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Spread: Al Khaleej Saudi Club (-1.5). This contract trades at 18¢ on Polymarket, closing April 24, 2026. This market displays extreme yield metrics (24,572% for Yes) coupled with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 25¢ spread, suggesting illiquidity and potentially stale pricing rather than genuine opportunity.

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18¢
Bid/Ask 15/21¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $0·OI $641.506·Closes Apr 24, 2026·1d remaining
0xb5f2f6b5ad422c0a220aee9a395dbe7090806b4f184dbffd2a466bc329cf31c7
7-day price98 snapshots · 5 regime
38¢17¢ current
Apr 1814¢Apr 22

Analysis

4d ago

This market displays extreme yield metrics (24,572% for Yes) coupled with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 25¢ spread, suggesting illiquidity and potentially stale pricing rather than genuine opportunity. The -1.5 spread indicates Al Khaleej needs a 2+ goal victory, a relatively unlikely outcome that justifies the 21¢ price, though the cliff risk index of 4 signals binary event sensitivity. With only 6 days to expiry and $136k open interest concentrated in a low-volume venue, this appears to be a niche sports betting market where the extreme yield reflects illiquidity premium rather than mispricing.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming Saudi Professional League game, scheduled for April 24 at 11:45 AM ET: This market will resolve to "Al Khaleej Saudi Club" if Al Khaleej Saudi Club win the game by 2 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Al Fateh Saudi Club". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on slstat.com. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Indicators

IY (Yes) >100,000%
IY (No) 5956.9%
Adj IY 50000%
CRI 5
Overround 2.2%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)>100,000%
IY (No)5956.9%
Adj IY50000%
CRI5
Overround2.2%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
6¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 5:57:14 PM
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 5:53:23 PM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xb5f2f6b5ad422c0a220aee9a395dbe7090806b4f184dbffd2a466bc329cf31c7 yes 100

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