Spread: Atlético San Luis (-2.5)

This market shows extreme distress signals with the Yes position at 19¢ down 73% over seven days, implying only a 19% probability that Atlético San Luis wins by 3+ goals—a historically rare outcome in Liga MX. The astronomical 26,139% implied yield on Yes combined with minimal 24-hour volume of $17.23 and a 4/10 cliff risk index suggest this pricing reflects either sharp market conviction that a 3-goal margin is unlikely or potential liquidity constraints creating a mispriced tail outcome. With just 6 days to resolution and the game scheduled for April 22, the market's neutral regime (0.5 score) and 3.26x volatility ratio indicate elevated uncertainty despite the extreme price compression.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming Liga MX game, scheduled for April 22 at 9:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Atlético San Luis" if Atlético San Luis win the game by 3 or more goals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Club Santos Laguna". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50–50. This market will resolve according to the official final score published on ligamx.net. This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Indicators

Regime

Trade