Will the Republican Party win the AZ-05 House seat?

The Republican lean in AZ-05 has softened notably, with the price declining 5 cents over seven days to 81¢, suggesting either shifting fundamentals or profit-taking from early backers. The extreme 778% implied yield on the "No" side contrasts sharply with the 42.8% yield on "Yes," indicating the market heavily discounts a Democratic upset despite relatively thin $12,789.70 open interest and modest $906 daily volume. With 200 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this market appears to be pricing in a Republican-favored but genuinely competitive race, though the low liquidity warrants caution on position sizing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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