Will the Republican Party win the AZ-06 House seat?

The Republican contract at 27¢ shows extreme mispricing with a 498% annualized yield on the Yes side despite zero 24-hour volume and only $8.1K open interest, suggesting severe illiquidity rather than genuine market conviction. The 1193% realized volatility and 6.27 vol ratio indicate this is a highly unstable micro-market where small trades create outsized price swings, making the current quote unreliable for decision-making. With 198 days to expiration and a neutral regime, this market lacks sufficient depth and information flow (2.6 arrivals/hour) to confidently trade at these levels.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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