Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 85% probability that Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meeting?. This contract trades at 85¢ on Polymarket, closing June 16, 2026. The market is pricing an 85% probability of a Selic rate cut at the June 2026 meeting, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (140.9% for Yes vs.
Analysis
The market is pricing an 85% probability of a Selic rate cut at the June 2026 meeting, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (140.9% for Yes vs. 2561% for No) and elevated realized volatility of 290% suggest significant uncertainty despite the high headline probability. With only $142.67k open interest and an 11¢ spread on relatively thin $435 daily volume, liquidity is constrained, making the price potentially vulnerable to sharp moves as the 61-day expiry approaches. The recent 3¢ price decline over seven days and high cliff risk index of 4 indicate market participants are reconsidering the initial bullish positioning on a rate cut.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xa68cd3b1f9fa774651b49a0679fe8d68e8dbf7d1b30d8bf4e9525704d0e72718 yes 100