No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 12% probability on "no change" despite the Brazilian central bank's recent hawkish stance and inflation concerns, creating an asymmetric 4,021% annualized yield for Yes positions. The thin liquidity ($3,930 open interest, $368 daily volume) and wide 8¢ spread suggest low conviction pricing, while the 1,470% realized volatility and recent 2¢ decline indicate significant uncertainty about June 2026 policy direction. With 61 days to expiration and a 1.5 info arrivals per hour, this market appears underpricing the probability of a rate hold, potentially reflecting illiquidity rather than fundamental expectations.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the Selic rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Brazil's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Brazil after its June 2026 policy meeting, currently scheduled for June 15-16, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar: https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Brazil's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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