Will the Bank of Canada announce a 25 bps decrease at the June meeting?

This market is essentially dead, with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 3¢ spread despite only $1.9M open interest, suggesting severe illiquidity and potential mispricing. The 8¢ price implies just an 8% probability of a 25 bps cut, yet the implied yield on a "Yes" resolution explodes to 7,668%—a red flag indicating the market lacks sufficient depth to fairly price tail outcomes. With 55 days to the June 2026 BoC meeting and near-zero recent activity, this contract appears abandoned by traders, making the current price unreliable for genuine probability assessment.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting. If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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