Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $2.4M open interest, suggesting the 88¢ price may not reflect true consensus given the wide 3¢ spread and highly skewed implied yields (90.9% Yes vs 4888% No). The 156% realized volatility and elevated Cliff Risk Index of 7 indicate significant uncertainty around the June 2026 BoC decision, though the recent 4¢ price rise over seven days suggests modest conviction building toward a no-change outcome. With 55 days to expiry and an information arrival rate of 1.5 events per hour, this market remains vulnerable to repricing as economic data and BoC communications emerge.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Canada's June 2026 meeting. If the target for the overnight rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the relevant rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Canada after its June 10, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Canada calendar: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/#target-dates This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Canada's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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