Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2026 meeting?

This illiquid market shows extreme mispricing with a 3¢ price generating an absurd 18,818% implied yield on the "Yes" side, while the "No" side offers only 18% — a massive asymmetry that suggests the market lacks sufficient trading activity ($0 in 24h volume) to establish rational pricing. The 5¢ bid-ask spread on just $1.6k open interest and the sharp 40% price decline over 7 days (5¢ to 3¢) indicate this is a thin, volatile market where a 50+ basis point rate cut by the BoE in June 2026 is being priced as nearly impossible, though the extreme yield distortion makes the actual probability assessment unreliable. With 63 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 32, traders should be cautious of the low liquidity and consider whether the 3¢ price reflects genuine market consensus or merely the last trade in a dormant order book.

Resolution rules

The summary for the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meeting for June 2026 is scheduled to be released on June 18, 2026. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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