Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the May Meeting?

This market is pricing in only an 11% probability of a rate hike, down sharply from 15¢ seven days ago, suggesting recent economic data or central bank communications have shifted expectations toward holding steady. The extreme 7079.8% implied yield on the "Yes" side reflects the outsized payout potential for the unlikely rate increase scenario, though the thin $4.91 daily volume and modest $8.8M open interest indicate limited liquidity for a binary outcome resolving in just 42 days. The elevated Cliff Risk Index of 8 combined with the 2¢ spread warrants caution, as the market may experience sharp repricing closer to the May 28 resolution date.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the change in the base rate resulting from the Bank of Korea’s May monetary policy meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Korea after its May 28, 2026 policy-setting meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Korea meeting schedule: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022 This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Korea's policy statement for their May 28, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the base rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Indicators

Regime

Trade