Will the Bank of Korea make no change to the base rate after the May Meeting?

The market is pricing in an extremely high probability (89%) that the Bank of Korea will hold rates steady at its May meeting, with the price rising 3 cents over the past week, though the $1.8 daily volume suggests thin liquidity that could amplify moves. The asymmetric implied yields—108.1% for a rate hold versus 7079.8% for a change—reflect the market's conviction in no action, though the extreme "No" yield indicates minimal positioning for a rate cut or hike. With 42 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 8, this market carries elevated tail risk, suggesting either a surprise policy shift or late-stage repricing could trigger sharp volatility despite the current consensus.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the change in the base rate resulting from the Bank of Korea’s May monetary policy meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Korea after its May 28, 2026 policy-setting meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Korea meeting schedule: https://www.bok.or.kr/eng/bbs/E0000627/view.do?nttId=10094301&searchCnd=1&searchKwd=&depth2=400417&depth3=400022&depth=400022&pageUnit=10&pageIndex=1&programType=newsDataEng&menuNo=400022&oldMenuNo=400022 This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Korea's policy statement for their May 28, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the base rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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