Will the Bank of Mexico announce an increase at the June meeting?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $850k open interest, creating a dangerously wide 51¢ spread and an implausible 1074% implied yield on the Yes side that reflects pricing dysfunction rather than genuine probability assessment. The price has collapsed 11¢ over seven days (43¢ to 32¢) while realized volatility sits at an extraordinary 1489%, suggesting either significant new information or a thin order book prone to slippage. With June 2026 resolution still months away and a neutral regime score, this market appears abandoned by active traders, making the current 28¢ price unreliable for forecasting actual Banxico policy.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate as a result of the monetary policy decision of the Bank of Mexico's June 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for June 25, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Indicators

Regime

Trade