Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the June Meeting?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 10¢ price implying only 10% probability of no rate change, yet the asymmetric implied yields (5,792% for Yes vs. 57% for No) suggest severe liquidity constraints on the Yes side with just $2.7M open interest and a wide 6¢ spread. The extraordinarily high realized volatility of 1,331% and cliff risk index of 10 indicate this is a highly unstable, thinly-traded contract where the 10¢ price may not reflect true market consensus but rather reflect minimal liquidity for rate-hold bets. With 64 days to expiry and only $8.48 in 24-hour volume, this market lacks sufficient depth to be reliable for directional positioning.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s June meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its June 19, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13 This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their June 19, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Indicators

Regime

Trade