Betmoar FDV above $100M one day after launch?
Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that Betmoar FDV above $100M one day after launch?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2028. The 26% probability reflects skepticism about Betmoar reaching a $100M FDV within one day of launch, though the 166% implied yield on the Yes side suggests meaningful tail-risk pricing for a potential breakout scenario.
Analysis
The 26% probability reflects skepticism about Betmoar reaching a $100M FDV within one day of launch, though the 166% implied yield on the Yes side suggests meaningful tail-risk pricing for a potential breakout scenario. With zero 24-hour volume despite $13.4K open interest and a tight 1¢ spread, liquidity is extremely thin, making the price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. The 307% realized volatility and 2.33 vol ratio indicate this market experiences sharp swings, likely driven by sparse information arrivals (0.7/h), so any news about Betmoar's launch timeline or tokenomics could move the price significantly before the 625-day expiry.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Betmoar's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Betmoar will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Betmoar (https://x.com/betmoardotfun) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
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Trade
sf trade 0xaa393fedb4a67e127456ae9266d0315f24b89fceaa7cebc93795dc50c4b0a811 yes 100