Betmoar FDV above $200M one day after launch?
Prediction markets currently give a 16% probability that Betmoar FDV above $200M one day after launch?. This contract trades at 16¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2028. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 525.8% implied yield on the Yes side against just 6.5% on the No side, yet trades at only 10¢ with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 16¢ spread, suggesting thin liquidity and potential mispricing.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 525.8% implied yield on the Yes side against just 6.5% on the No side, yet trades at only 10¢ with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 16¢ spread, suggesting thin liquidity and potential mispricing. The 1,804% realized volatility and 7.57 vol ratio indicate this is a highly speculative binary event with substantial uncertainty, though the 625-day timeframe provides ample runway for Betmoar's launch and market development. The 9 Cliff Risk Index and incomplete resolution criteria (text cuts off mid-sentence) warrant caution—clarification on what qualifies as an "official token" is critical before taking a position.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Betmoar's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Betmoar will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Betmoar (https://x.com/betmoardotfun) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
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Trade
sf trade 0xfbd05a63c220b807c1e933620b6380d5f5b574cf2de54e9c72e9a778ede7e12c yes 100