Betmoar FDV above $400M one day after launch?

The 7% probability reflects extreme skepticism about Betmoar reaching a $400M FDV within 24 hours of launch, yet the Yes side offers a staggering 776% implied yield—a massive risk premium that suggests either severe underpricing or justified wariness given the 1,510% realized volatility. With only $42.62 in 24-hour volume against $10.6M open interest, liquidity is critically thin, making the 3¢ spread potentially misleading and creating execution risk for any meaningful position. The high cliff risk index (13) and 5.39 volatility ratio indicate this market is prone to sharp repricing events, particularly risky given the 625-day duration and token launch uncertainty.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Betmoar's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Betmoar will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Betmoar (https://x.com/betmoardotfun) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

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