What is the current probability for "Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 14¢ (14% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2028. 609 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 339.4% and 10.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2028.

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14¢

Bid/Ask 7/22¢·Spread 14¢·Vol $0·OI $3,771.695·Closes Jan 1, 2028·609d remaining

0x72ecc8c75d781d0d8584afdac7928c85e62a1ee5c73e67c7d587da88aa941544

7-day price398 snapshots · 26 regime

52¢14¢ current

Apr 81¢May 1

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Billion's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Billions (https://x.com/billions_ntwk) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Indicators

IY (Yes) 339.4%

IY (No) 10.6%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 6

RV 2150%

VR 13.34

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	339.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	10.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	6	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	2150%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	13.34	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.4/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	2.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	1.13	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

5/1/2026, 1:42:13 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 5/1/2026, 1:38:57 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x72ecc8c75d781d0d8584afdac7928c85e62a1ee5c73e67c7d587da88aa941544 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

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