What is the current probability for "Bitcoin price on May 1, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 99¢ (99% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 1, 2026. 0 days remaining.

Where can I trade "Bitcoin price on May 1, 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Bitcoin price on May 1, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 99% probability that Bitcoin price on May 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 99¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026.

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99¢

Bid/Ask 0/100¢·Spread 100¢·Vol $164,080.4·OI $38,861.34·Closes May 1, 2026·0d remaining

KXBTCD-26MAY0114-T78199.99

7-day price11 snapshots · 1 regime

99¢99¢ current

May 147¢May 1

Resolution rules

If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) before 2 PM EDT is above 78199.99 at 2 PM EDT on May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Adj IY 48405%

CRI 16

Overround 2.7%

LAS 0.03

▶ Full indicator table (4)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
Adj IY	48405%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	16	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	2.7%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.03	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

100¢

Computed

5/1/2026, 7:20:02 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 5/1/2026, 5:53:09 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXBTCD-26MAY0114-T78199.99 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →