How long will Drake's album titled 'Iceman' be?

Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that How long will Drake's album titled 'Iceman' be?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This micro-liquidity market shows extreme pricing distortion with a 12¢ bid-ask spread on just $3 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, suggesting the 12% probability reflects minimal consensus rather than informed pricing.

█████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░
12¢
Bid/Ask 0/13¢·Spread 13¢·Vol $0·OI $3·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining
KXALBUMLENGTH-26DEC31-100

Analysis

4d ago

This micro-liquidity market shows extreme pricing distortion with a 12¢ bid-ask spread on just $3 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, suggesting the 12% probability reflects minimal consensus rather than informed pricing. The asymmetric implied yields (1032.7% for Yes vs 19.2% for No) indicate severe mispricing, likely driven by the illiquidity rather than genuine conviction about Drake releasing a 100+ minute album titled "Iceman." With 259 days to expiry and a high cliff risk index of 7, this market is essentially non-functional for trading purposes and should be avoided until meaningful liquidity develops.

Resolution rules

If Drake's album titled 'Iceman' is At least 100 minutes, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1052.3%
IY (No) 19.6%
Adj IY 526%
CRI 7
Overround 4.9%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)1052.3%
IY (No)19.6%
Adj IY526%
CRI7
Overround4.9%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
13¢
Computed
4/21/2026, 8:12:12 PM
Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXALBUMLENGTH-26DEC31-100 yes 100

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions