Will the Republican Party win the CA-04 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1,845% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 18% on the No side, suggesting severe underpricing of Republican chances in this heavily Democratic district. The 9¢ price reflects CA-04's strong Democratic lean, but the massive yield differential and zero 24-hour volume indicate illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than informed consensus. With $15,995 in open interest and 200 days to expiration, this appears to be a niche position where the high cliff risk index (10) warns of binary outcome sensitivity, making it suitable only for contrarian bettors confident in Republican performance.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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