Will the Democratic Party win the CA-23 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1121.5% implied yield for Yes against just 29.7% for No, suggesting severe mispricing or illiquidity despite $16.5M open interest. The zero 24-hour volume combined with a tight 1¢ spread indicates the market is frozen with no recent price discovery, making the 14¢ price potentially stale. With 200 days to expiry and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 6, this appears to be a Republican-favored district where Democratic odds are genuinely low, but the extreme yield differential warrants caution—this could reflect either genuine edge opportunity or a liquidity trap where the quoted price doesn't reflect true market consensus.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade