Cambria FDV above $100M one day after launch?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 591% implied yield on the Yes side despite only 8% probability, suggesting severe undervaluation or significant tail risk the market isn't pricing. The 3¢ spread is notably wide relative to the 8¢ price, and the dramatic 7-day decline from 11¢ to 8¢ combined with 2426% realized volatility indicates recent capitulation that may have overshot downside. With $5.6M open interest but only $16.67 in 24h volume, liquidity is dangerously thin, making the extreme yield potentially illusory given execution risk on any meaningful position size.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Cambria's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Cambria (https://x.com/playcambria) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

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