What is the current probability for "Cap FDV above $4B one day after launch?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 47¢ (47% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on January 1, 2028. 609 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Cap FDV above $4B one day after launch?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 67.5% and 53.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Cap FDV above $4B one day after launch?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Cap FDV above $4B one day after launch?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 47% probability that Cap FDV above $4B one day after launch?. This contract trades at 47¢ on Polymarket, closing January 1, 2028.

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47¢

Bid/Ask 4/90¢·Spread 86¢·Vol $0·OI $75.977·Closes Jan 1, 2028·609d remaining

0x4ac65964b7cebf0aec2bb6d7034188352b37f3a1fb33e71f0b5f278b85eee4d7

7-day price109 snapshots · 4 regime

50¢47¢ current

Apr 271¢May 1

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Cap's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Cap (https://x.com/capmoney_) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Indicators

IY (Yes) 67.5%

IY (No) 53.1%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 1

RV 360%

VR 4.23

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	67.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	53.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	360%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	4.23	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.1/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	2.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	1.83	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

5/1/2026, 1:39:52 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 5/1/2026, 1:38:57 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x4ac65964b7cebf0aec2bb6d7034188352b37f3a1fb33e71f0b5f278b85eee4d7 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

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