Will Riyadh Falcons finish in the top 4 of the CDL Regular Season?

Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Will Riyadh Falcons finish in the top 4 of the CDL Regular Season?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Polymarket, closing June 28, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $3.122 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 49¢ price potentially unreliable despite the fair 49% implied probability for Riyadh Falcons' top-4 finish.

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18¢
Bid/Ask 3/32¢·Spread 29¢·Vol $0·OI $15.085·Closes Jun 28, 2026·67d remaining
0xb3037da1fbb230e238c8ce909f54d274ad5fadaae0039e9371378e0481753108
7-day price448 snapshots · 5 regime
50¢18¢ current
Apr 811¢Apr 22

Analysis

2d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $3.122 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 49¢ price potentially unreliable despite the fair 49% implied probability for Riyadh Falcons' top-4 finish. The massive 95¢ spread and inflated 549% implied yield on the Yes side reflect the thin liquidity rather than genuine edge, and with 69 days to expiry, meaningful price discovery is unlikely without significant capital inflow. The neutral regime and flat 7-day price action suggest this market lacks sufficient trader interest to generate reliable signals on CDL team performance.

Resolution rules

This is a market to predict which teams finish in the top 4 of the Call of Duty League Regular Season standings for the 2025–26 season. If the listed team officially finishes in the top 4 of the Call of Duty League standings at the end of the season, the market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If two or more teams are tied on points for a top 4 position, resolution will follow the official Call of Duty League tiebreaking procedures. If the 2025–26 Call of Duty League season is canceled or not completed before October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source will be official information from the Call of Duty League (https://www.callofdutyleague.com/en-us/standings?utm_source=cdlweb&utm_medium=navigationbar&utm_campaign=general). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2675.8%
IY (No) 112.3%
Adj IY 2676%
CRI 5
RV 28213%
VR 67.55
▶ Full indicator table (8)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)2675.8%
IY (No)112.3%
Adj IY2676%
CRI5
RV28213%
VR67.55
IAR6.3/h
Overround2.9%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
29¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 9:51:31 AM
Indicators computed 4/22/2026, 9:38:24 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xb3037da1fbb230e238c8ce909f54d274ad5fadaae0039e9371378e0481753108 yes 100

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