Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the April meeting?

The market has rallied sharply from 56¢ to 77¢ over seven days, reflecting growing conviction that the Colombian central bank will hike rates at its April meeting, though the extreme 11,928.5% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe tail risk pricing for a rate cut scenario. With only 10 days to expiry and $202,958 in 24-hour volume against $1.79M open interest, liquidity is moderate but the 6¢ spread is reasonable; the 224% realized volatility and 3.0 cliff risk index suggest this market could experience sharp repricing as the announcement approaches. The 2.5 information arrivals per hour indicate active monitoring, but the neutral regime score (0.5) suggests current price levels may not fully reflect underlying economic data that could shift expectations before resolution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the monetary policy rate as a result of the Central Bank of Colombia's April 2026 meeting versus the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Central Bank of Colombia after its April 30, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Central Bank of Colombia calendar: https://www.banrep.gov.co/es/calendario-eventos. This market may resolve as soon as the Central Bank of Colombia's statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Indicators

Regime

Trade