What is the current probability for "Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-04-30?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 46¢ (46% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on April 30, 2026. 2 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-04-30?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 17928.0% and 13009.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-04-30?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-04-30?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 46% probability that Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-04-30?. This contract trades at 46¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026.

██████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

46¢

Bid/Ask 42/49¢·Spread 7¢·Vol $0·OI $8,792.81·Closes Apr 30, 2026·2d remaining

0x692d1042c0b4ea24afad571720d348319a66552494d18a554fe95b7038826f77

7-day price27 snapshots · 2 regime

48¢46¢ current

Apr 2646¢Apr 27

Resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 30, 2026 If Club Bolívar wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve "No". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 17928.0%

IY (No) 13009.5%

Adj IY 6688%

CRI 1

RV 175%

VR 0.13

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	17928.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	13009.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	6688%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	175%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.13	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.15	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/27/2026, 2:50:29 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/27/2026, 2:38:55 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x692d1042c0b4ea24afad571720d348319a66552494d18a554fe95b7038826f77 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions