Will the Democratic Party win the CO-04 House seat?

This CO-04 market shows extreme asymmetry with a 339% implied yield on the Democratic side versus 98% on the Republican side, suggesting sharp disagreement about fundamentals in a district that has historically leaned Republican. The 6¢ spread is notably wide relative to the 35¢ price, and the astronomical 1634% realized volatility paired with zero 24-hour volume indicates this is a thinly-traded, highly speculative position where large moves can occur on minimal order flow. With 200 days to expiry and a high information arrival rate of 4.3/hour, the market appears to be pricing in significant upcoming catalysts, though the neutral regime score suggests no clear directional consensus yet.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade