Will the Democratic Party win the CO-06 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely lopsided 94% probability for a Democratic CO-06 win, yet the No side offers a staggering 2860% implied yield versus just 11.7% for Yes, indicating severe illiquidity and potential mispricing on the contrarian bet. With zero 24-hour volume despite $20.5M open interest and a 1¢ spread, this appears to be a dead market where the price may not reflect true consensus—the massive yield asymmetry suggests either trapped capital or a liquidity desert that could create opportunities for informed traders. At 200 days to expiry with a neutral regime and flat 7-day price action, the market lacks conviction signals, making the extreme probability worth questioning given Colorado's recent political shifts.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CO-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade