Juan Carlos Pinzón to win Colombia Presidential Election 1st round
Juan Carlos Pinzón is priced at 0¢ midpoint on Polymarket. Current book: 0¢ bid, 0¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 16 inside Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?.
Price history
0¢ current
−50¢Contract brief
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Outcome
Juan Carlos Pinzón
Rank
#3 of 16
Leader
Iván Cepeda Castro 85¢
Range
0¢-85¢
Family volume
$6.1M
Identifier
0x56d3614b...a6fc
May 23, 2026, 9:19 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
0¢
Spread
0¢
Reported volume
$146K
Family rank
#3 of 16
16 outcomes · Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?
Closes
May 31, 2026
Family volume
$6.1M
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 0¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 31, 2026
Identifier
0x56d3614b…a6fc
Event family
Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$6.1M
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Iván Cepeda Castro 85¢
Current share
2%
Iván Cepeda Castro
polymarket · 0xc00920db6f5e84821a61bd31578499bbc9bd125949572b589b7a9e4b0f13bad3
Abelardo de la Espriella
polymarket · 0xb611b3a7173f69e412b55561ed265d849e36693c248ff620d0e981c5b3f2e325
Paloma Valencia
polymarket · 0x04e73caf81ef64ce0c612699049d295e18dfe9bdd60d898fd3d8a64cac723661
Vicky Dávila
polymarket · 0x7c795144bf0351e82c85f844de81f29f482aaefc3b544eddeb8b7932887649e4
Mauricio Cárdenas
polymarket · 0x0d2496544913dd1efdc093d296e366b4de344adeecc45d84cb4ab26433f335d1
Enrique Peñalosa
polymarket · 0x5037195eafd98f9d50ef8d5700abcaaa7351cc53bfdb1df23fd28fd35eb94e9b
Claudia López
polymarket · 0x33b9298257eac39553c008b882ac333d2538bd493689d6710d3986d890580033
Luis Gilberto Murillo
polymarket · 0xa5b21a5fba9c9da91f62cedca9d28747816a514050140708a2300cdecef87f78
Germán Vargas Lleras
polymarket · 0x2890121a9277d619b936695405544bda9f80d184b05d9503fd8f173c52867365
Roy Barreras
polymarket · 0xeae8d09170bc56ee8ba9676b4a2f6d1a45c69084172ee7cc8a022197c2db191a
David Luna Sánchez
polymarket · 0x3baca5b0070978e7518ec4fbaf7ac79e30eb8adc48534e0004780fca2a59a2f2
Daniel Quintero
polymarket · 0x7ce21332ecca3948da5ecf5e626b16938ba1487ce07d1579d869f25045002200
Juan Manuel Galán
polymarket · 0x6b98b6acf1dbf405c189176529f77ff5356b2dc9c2a5f15012c0e2df3f561d2b
Gustavo Bolívar
polymarket · 0x49ed66968bfb4058a43bcf7bc664cb879e93a3e51bd10d844e3f8662febe9fd4
Sergio Fajardo
polymarket · 0x77b1512402d2b2590f65d22f4fb1d2ce29f3fd2d6516429928f430ddfc2215b3
Juan Carlos Pinzón
polymarket · 0x56d3614b2a31f92909d6c8d9674b8a4b642ed8a84e54f44023327cb31c30a6fc
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.