Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

De la Espriella's 4¢ price reflects extreme long-shot odds with a staggering 19,945% implied yield on YES positions, though the $32.5M open interest and modest $5.9K daily volume suggest limited liquidity relative to the position size. The 4,095% realized volatility and elevated cliff risk (24) indicate this market has experienced sharp price swings despite the flat 7-day movement, pointing to potential data gaps or sporadic large trades moving a thin order book. With 44 days to Colombian election day, the neutral regime and 1.6 info arrivals per hour suggest the market is pricing in genuine uncertainty about this candidate's viability, though the extreme yield warrants caution about whether positions can actually be liquidated at posted prices.

Resolution rules

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

Indicators

Regime

Trade