Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

The market is pricing Cepeda Castro as an overwhelming favorite at 94¢, but the extreme 13,617% implied yield on the "No" side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity rather than genuine conviction—the $31k open interest is modest for such a lopsided probability. The 7-day surge from 88¢ to 94¢ combined with a tight 1¢ spread and moderate $1.27M daily volume suggests recent accumulation by informed traders, though the cliff risk index of 16 warrants caution about potential volatility as the May 31 election approaches in 42 days. This appears to be a thin market where large positions can move prices substantially, making the 94¢ level potentially vulnerable to new information about competing candidates or polling shifts.

Resolution rules

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).

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