Will the Democrats win the Colorado governor race in 2026?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $26k in open interest, suggesting the 92¢ price may not reflect true market consensus and could be vulnerable to sharp reversals. The asymmetric implied yields—15.9% for Yes versus 2099% for No—indicate severe mispricing, as the No side offers absurd returns that no rational market should sustain, pointing to either stale pricing or a broken market mechanism. With nearly two years until the 2026 election and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 12, this market appears frozen rather than actively traded, making the 92¢ quote potentially unreliable for decision-making.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Colorado gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Indicators

Regime

Trade