Will Damac Saudi Club vs. Al Okhdood SC end in a draw?

Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that Will Damac Saudi Club vs. Al Okhdood SC end in a draw?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Polymarket, closing April 23, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $62.6k open interest and a massive 68¢ spread, suggesting the 43¢ price may not reflect true consensus.

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25¢
Bid/Ask 23/26¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $0·OI $73,554.016·Closes Apr 23, 2026·1d remaining
0xea7377041c239a3783e9cb03f0b644893a5dc59022c9be200c3e582123404ba0
7-day price134 snapshots · 4 regime
46¢25¢ current
Apr 1324¢Apr 21

Analysis

6d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $62.6k open interest and a massive 68¢ spread, suggesting the 43¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The astronomical implied yield of 8,789% on the "Yes" side indicates severe mispricing or a liquidity trap, likely driven by minimal trading activity rather than genuine probability assessment. With only 7 days to expiry and the match scheduled for 4/23/2026, the 471% realized volatility and recent 8¢ price decline suggest this is a thin, speculative position that could experience sharp repricing once meaningful volume arrives.

Resolution rules

In the upcoming game, scheduled for April 23, 2026 If the game ends in a draw, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Yes". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.

Indicators

IY (Yes) >100,000%
IY (No) 20345.6%
Adj IY 22293%
CRI 3
RV 324%
VR 0.08
▶ Full indicator table (9)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)>100,000%
IY (No)20345.6%
Adj IY22293%
CRI3
RV324%
VR0.08
IAR0.7/h
Overround0.0%
LAS0.12

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
3¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 9:44:04 AM
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 9:38:24 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0xea7377041c239a3783e9cb03f0b644893a5dc59022c9be200c3e582123404ba0 yes 100

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