Will the Democratic Party win the DE-AL House seat?

This market reflects an extremely lopsided view of Delaware's at-large House seat, with Democrats priced at 93¢ implying near-certainty of victory, yet the extreme 2456.6% implied yield on the "No" side and 13 cliff risk index suggest severe illiquidity and potential mispricing on the Republican side. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $17,881 open interest indicates this is a thin, inactive market where the price may not reflect genuine equilibrium—the massive yield differential is likely a liquidity artifact rather than a true probability assessment. With nearly 200 days to expiry and a 1¢ spread, traders should be cautious about the reliability of either side's pricing until volume and participation increase.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the DE-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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