Will Igor Thiago be the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season?

Igor Thiago's odds have collapsed dramatically from 50¢ to 14¢ over seven days, reflecting either a significant injury, loss of form, or transfer away from a top Premier League club. The extreme 4,719% implied yield on "Yes" positions combined with realized volatility exceeding 10,600% suggests this market is pricing in near-zero probability of an unlikely outcome, though the tight 1¢ spread and $7.5M open interest indicate reasonable liquidity despite the sharp repricing. With only 41 days until resolution and an info arrival rate of 1.7 updates per hour, this appears to be a contrarian bet on a player who has likely fallen out of contention for the Golden Boot.

Resolution rules

This is a polymarket to predict which player will finish as the top goal scorer in the 2025–26 English Premier League season. If the listed player finishes as the sole top goal scorer in the 2025-26 EPL season, the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Goals scored in Premier League matches only will count. Goals in other competitions (e.g., FA Cup, Carabao Cup, Champions League, Europa League, international matches) will not count for this market. If multiple players tie for the top goal scorer, the market will resolve to the player whose last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2025–26 English Premier League season is canceled or not completed by August 1, 2026, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official statistics from the English Premier League. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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