ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that ETH price on Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme mispricing with an 8¢ (8% probability) price generating a 1,870.7% annualized yield on the Yes side, suggesting the market severely underestimates the likelihood of ETH trading in the $1,500-$1,750 range by January 2027.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with an 8¢ (8% probability) price generating a 1,870.7% annualized yield on the Yes side, suggesting the market severely underestimates the likelihood of ETH trading in the $1,500-$1,750 range by January 2027. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $33,094 open interest and a 1¢ spread indicates dangerously low liquidity, making the quoted price potentially unreliable and subject to significant slippage on any meaningful trade. With 259 days to expiration and a cliff risk index of 13, this appears to be a speculative mispricing rather than a genuine market consensus, particularly given that ETH's current price would need to move substantially for this range to be out-of-the-money.
Resolution rules
If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' ETHUSD_RTI before 12 AM EST is between 1500.00-1749.99 at 12 AM EST on Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXETHY-27JAN0100-B1625 yes 100