SimpleFunctions
PolymarketJan 1, 2027237 days left

Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?

This contract is priced at 21¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 20¢ bid, 22¢ ask, 2¢ spread.

Implied probability

21¢
$776K volume
$46K liquidity
36% of event volume

Event outcomes

7

Family volume

$2.2M

Best sibling

$300M 39¢

Ticker

0x7fd2f503…8ca8

Market snapshot

$500M in market context.

This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch?. The displayed quote is 21¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $10. In the Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch? family, this outcome ranks #3 of 7 by current quote across 7 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 5:53 AM UTC.

Outcome

$500M

Family rank

#3 of 7

Venue

Polymarket

Current quote

21¢

Quote source

Latest venue quote

Timing

Listed until Jan 1, 2027

24h volume

$10

Family context

7 outcomes · Extended FDV above ___ one day after launch?

Quote range

1¢-70¢

Family leader

$150M 70¢

Last updated

May 9, 2026, 5:53 AM UTC · 6m ago

Venue identifier: 0x7fd2f50352ef2c9e7b462a46b893792d7a6bf510bf0bc2e1f07f85b1ea1e8ca8. Family volume: $2.2M.

Price history

21¢ current

+4¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 8, 2026May 6, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

20 / 22¢

Polymarket
2¢ spread
BidSize
20¢686
19¢1.6K
18¢900
17¢200
15¢60
14¢544
13¢328
12¢392
AskSize
22¢4.0K
23¢3.2K
24¢1.7K
27¢20
28¢1.4K
29¢1.4K
30¢1.4K
31¢1.9K

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Extended's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Extended (https://x.com/extendedapp) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Identifier

0x7fd2f503…8ca8

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

580.0%

IY (No)

41.0%

Adj IY

262%

CRI

4

Overround

0.5%

LAS

0.10

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Observability

medium

Event type

financial

Full indicator table

580.0%
41.0%
Adj IY
262%
4
Overround
0.5%
LAS
0.10

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